**Scenario/Summary**

You will complete a Course Project in this course that will span two weeks. The final project is due the Sunday of Week 7. The project is broken into two parts and it would be most effective to complete Part I in Week 6 and Part II in Week 7. In Week 6, Confidence Intervals will be explored and in Week 7 Hypothesis testing will be explored.

A confidence interval is a defined range of values such that there is a specified probability that the value of a parameter lies within the interval.

In Part I of this project, you will pick a topic, complete research and provide a write-up that includes calculations. Round all values to **two decimal** places when appropriate.

**Deliverables**

1. **Choose a Topic where you can gather at least 50 pieces of data.**

Examples of Topics

a. The Golden Gate Warriors Points Per Game in 2016 (use the points scored in the first 50 games).

b. High School Graduation Rates by State (use the graduation rates for all 50 states)

c. Average Tuition Rates in the US (You have to find the tuition rates of 50 college/universities).

d. The prices of a hotel room per night in a major city (You have to find the price of the same night of hotels in one city).

e. Weights of 50 babies at birth.

2. **Write at least a 1-Page Report**

Open a Word Document

a. Introduction–Provide a description of your topic and cite where you found your data.

b. Sample Data—Include a 5×10 table including your 50 values in your report. You must provide ALL of your sample data.

c. Problem Computations—For the topic you chose, you must answer the following:

· Determine the mean and standard deviation of your sample.

· Find the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals.

· Make sure to list the margin of error for the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence interval.

· Create your own confidence interval (you cannot use 80%, 95%, and 99%) and make sure to show your work. Make sure to list the margin of error.

d. Problem Analysis—Write a half-page reflection.

· What trend do you see takes place to the confidence interval as the confidence level rises? Explain mathematically why that takes place.

· Provide a sentence for each confidence interval created in part c) which explains what the confidence interval means in context of topic of your project.

· Explain how Part I of the project has helped you understand confidence intervals better?

· How did this project help you understand statistics better?

**Required Software**

Microsoft Office: Word and Excel

Use a personal copy or access the software at https://application.chamberlain.edu (Links to an external site.).

**Grading**

This activity will be graded based on the Course Project grading rubric. You can view the rubric below.

**Course Outcomes (CO): 6**

**Due Date: By 11:59 p.m. MT on Sunday of Week 7**

**Course Project Rubric**

**Criteria**

**Ratings**

**Pts**

Part I: Topic & Introduction

4.0 pts

Proficient Student picks appropriate topic, provides a description of topic and the cites where data was found.

3.0 pts

Above Average Student picks appropriate topic and introduces data. No citation.

2.0 pts

Average. Student does not pick a topic that is appropriate for the project, introduces the data but does not cite source.

1.0 pts

Needs Improvement Students provides topic without descritption and citation.

0.0 pts

No Effort. No topic, descritpion or citation is provided.

4.0 pts

Part I: Sample Data

4.0 pts

Proficient Student provides ALL 50 pieces of data.

3.0 pts

Above Average Student provides 30-49 pieces of data.

2.0 pts

Average Student provides 20 – 29 pieces of data.

1.0 pts

Needs Improvement Student provides 1-19 pieces of data.

0.0 pts

No Effort. No Data was provided.

4.0 pts

Part I: Mean & Standard Deviation

5.0 pts

Proficient Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct with no rounding error. .

4.0 pts

Above Average Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct but with roujnding error.

3.0 pts

Average One Value (either mean or sample standsrd deviation) is correct but the other is not correct.

1.0 pts

Needs Improvement Both the Mean & Sample Standard Deviation are incorrect but it was attempted.

0.0 pts

No Effort. The mean and sample standard deviation

5.0 pts

Part I: Constructing the 80%, 95%, 99% Confidence Intervals

15.0 pts

Proficient Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty making sure to note the margin of error for each.

12.0 pts

Above Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty but is missing margin of errors (or some of the margin of errors are incorrect).

10.0 pts

Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but there are some errors in the calculations.

6.0 pts

Needs Improvement Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but all of the values are incorrect. The component was attempted.

0.0 pts

No Effort. No Confidence Intervals are provided.

15.0 pts

Part I: Creating a new confidence interval

7.0 pts

Proficient. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error.

5.0 pts

Above Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error but there is rounding error.

4.0 pts

Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly but does not highlight the margin of error.

3.0 pts

Needs Improvement Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) but it was not done correctly.

0.0 pts

No Effort. The student did not create a new confidence interval.

7.0 pts

Part I: Problem Analysis

10.0 pts

Proficient. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for each confidence interval created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. Provides a reflection for Part I of the project.

8.0 pts

Above Average. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides sentences for each confidence interval created explaining what the confience interval means in context of the data collected. Does NOT provide a Reflection.

7.0 pts

Average. Student may or may not address the trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for SOME confidence intervaSl created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. A reflection Part I of the project may or may not be provided.

5.0 pts

Needs Improvement. Majority of the analysis is missing.

0.0 pts

No Effort. No Problem Anaylsis is provided.

10.0 pts

Part II: Choose a Data Set & Preliminary Data

5.0 pts

Proficient. Student computes all 4 Preliminary Data Values.

4.0 pts

Above Average. Student computes all 3 Preliminary Data Values.

3.0 pts

Average. Student computes all 2 Preliminary Data Values.

1.0 pts

Needs Improvement. Student computes all 1 Preliminary Data Values.

0.0 pts

No Effort. No Preliminary Data

5.0 pts

Part II: Hypothesis Testing

20.0 pts

Proficient. Completes 4 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.

16.0 pts

Above Average. Completes 3 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.

14.0 pts

Average. Completes 2 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.

10.0 pts

Needs Improvement: Completes 1 Hypothesis Test highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.

0.0 pts

No Effort. No Hypothesis Tests were completed.

20.0 pts

Part II: Hypothesis Testing Analysis

10.0 pts

Proficient. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for ALL 4 Problems.

8.0 pts

Above Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 3 Problems.

7.0 pts

Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 2 Problems.

5.0 pts

Needs Improvement. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 1 Problem

0.0 pts

No Effort. No conclusion/explanations were given.

10.0 pts

Part II: Proposal and computations for new hypothesis test

10.0 pts

Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.

8.0 pts

Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets correclty and has MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.

7.0 pts

Average. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets and MISSING MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.

5.0 pts

Needs Improvement. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets but there are multiple mistakes and/or conclusions are not valid.

0.0 pts

No Effort. The student did not propose/compute a new hypothesis test.

10.0 pts

Total Points: 90.0

**Scenario/Summary**

This week you will submit both parts of the course project. You completed Part I in Week 6 and will complete Part II this week. You will submit **one **word document with both parts of the project.

Hypothesis Testing is the use of statistics to determine the probability that a given claim is true.

In Part II of this project, you will choose a data set, review claims and perform hypothesis testing and make a decision. You will then complete a write-up that includes the calculations.

The government logs the number of documented births, deaths, marriages and divorces; however, it is possible to have undocumented cases. In part II of this project, you are going to test claims about total births, deaths, marriages and divorces.

**Deliverables**

1. **Choose a Data Set.**

a. Go to https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/products/nvsr.htm (Links to an external site.)

b. In the search bar type: Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths

c. Pick a DataSet and download the PDF document and make note of the volume, number, and date. For example you could use the National Vital Statistics Reports,

d. Pick the same month/year combination for each data set. For example, choosing September of 2009.

2. **Preliminary Calculations**

a. Create a summary table for 1. Live Births, 2. Deaths, 3. Marriages, and 4. Divorces highlighting the **mean, median, sample standard deviation, minimum and maximum values** for each the data sets. You will have **FOUR** tables using the list of values of each state, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico (You will have 52 numbers for each data set).

Summary Table for _________

Mean

Median

Standard Deviation

Minimum

Maximum

3. **Hypothesis Testing**

With the information that you gather from the summary tables, test the following (you can use excel when appropriate):

a. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of births is over 8000 in the United States and territories at the 0.05 level of significance.

b. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of deaths is below is less than or equal to 6000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.

c. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of marriages is greater or equal to 7000 in the United States and territories at the .05 level of significance.

d. Determine if there is sufficient evidence to conclude the average amount of divorces is less than or equal to 4000 in the United States and territories at the 0.10 level of significance.

For each of the tests above, in your report, be sure to—

1. Clearly state a null and alternative hypothesis

2. Give the value of the test statistic

3. Report the P-Value

4. Clearly state your conclusion (Reject the Null or Fail to Reject the Null)

5. Explain what your conclusion means in context of the data.

Lastly, propose and conduct your own test of hypothesis about the Birth, Death, Marriage and Divorce data that you have been analyzing. Make sure to follow the five steps above.

**Required Software**

Microsoft Office: Word and Excel

Use a personal copy or access the software at https://application.chamberlain.edu (Links to an external site.) __.__

**Grading**

This activity will be graded based on the Course Project grading rubric.

**Course Outcomes (CO): 6**

**Due Date: By 11:59 p.m. MT on Sunday of Week 7**

Rubric

**Course Project Rubric**

Course Project Rubric

**Criteria**

**Ratings**

**Pts**

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Topic & Introduction

**4.0 pts**

**Proficient Student picks appropriate topic, provides a description of topic and the cites where data was found.**

**3.0 pts**

**Above Average Student picks appropriate topic and introduces data. No citation.**

**2.0 pts**

**Average. Student does not pick a topic that is appropriate for the project, introduces the data but does not cite source.**

**1.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement Students provides topic without descritption and citation.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. No topic, descritpion or citation is provided.**

4.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Sample Data

**4.0 pts**

**Proficient Student provides ALL 50 pieces of data.**

**3.0 pts**

**Above Average Student provides 30-49 pieces of data.**

**2.0 pts**

**Average Student provides 20 – 29 pieces of data.**

**1.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement Student provides 1-19 pieces of data.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. No Data was provided.**

4.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Mean & Standard Deviation

**5.0 pts**

**Proficient Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct with no rounding error. .**

**4.0 pts**

**Above Average Mean & Sample Standard Deviation of the data set is correct but with roujnding error.**

**3.0 pts**

**Average One Value (either mean or sample standsrd deviation) is correct but the other is not correct.**

**1.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement Both the Mean & Sample Standard Deviation are incorrect but it was attempted.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. The mean and sample standard deviation**

5.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Constructing the 80%, 95%, 99% Confidence Intervals

**15.0 pts**

**Proficient Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty making sure to note the margin of error for each.**

**12.0 pts**

**Above Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals correclty but is missing margin of errors (or some of the margin of errors are incorrect).**

**10.0 pts**

**Average Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but there are some errors in the calculations.**

**6.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement Computes the 80%, 95%, and 99% confidence intervals but all of the values are incorrect. The component was attempted.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. No Confidence Intervals are provided.**

15.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Creating a new confidence interval

**7.0 pts**

**Proficient. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error.**

**5.0 pts**

**Above Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly making sure to list the margin of error but there is rounding error.**

**4.0 pts**

**Average. Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) correctly but does not highlight the margin of error.**

**3.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement Student computes a confidence interval (not 80%, 95%, 99%) but it was not done correctly.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. The student did not create a new confidence interval.**

7.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart I: Problem Analysis

**10.0 pts**

**Proficient. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for each confidence interval created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. Provides a reflection for Part I of the project.**

**8.0 pts**

**Above Average. Student addresses trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides sentences for each confidence interval created explaining what the confience interval means in context of the data collected. Does NOT provide a Reflection.**

**7.0 pts**

**Average. Student may or may not address the trend that takes place when the confidence level rises. Provides a sentence for SOME confidence intervaSl created explaining what the confidence interval means in context of the data collected. A reflection Part I of the project may or may not be provided.**

**5.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement. Majority of the analysis is missing.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. No Problem Anaylsis is provided.**

10.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Choose a Data Set & Preliminary Data

**5.0 pts**

**Proficient. Student computes all 4 Preliminary Data Values.**

**4.0 pts**

**Above Average. Student computes all 3 Preliminary Data Values.**

**3.0 pts**

**Average. Student computes all 2 Preliminary Data Values.**

**1.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement. Student computes all 1 Preliminary Data Values.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. No Preliminary Data**

5.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing

**20.0 pts**

**Proficient. Completes 4 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.**

**16.0 pts**

**Above Average. Completes 3 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.**

**14.0 pts**

**Average. Completes 2 Hypothesis Tests highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.**

**10.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement: Completes 1 Hypothesis Test highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, and report p-value.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. No Hypothesis Tests were completed.**

20.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Hypothesis Testing Analysis

**10.0 pts**

**Proficient. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for ALL 4 Problems.**

**8.0 pts**

**Above Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 3 Problems.**

**7.0 pts**

**Average. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 2 Problems.**

**5.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement. State correct conclusion (Reject/Fail to Reject) and valid explanations in context of the data for 1 Problem**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. No conclusion/explanations were given.**

10.0 pts

This criterion is linked to a Learning OutcomePart II: Proposal and computations for new hypothesis test

**10.0 pts**

**Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.**

**8.0 pts**

**Proficient. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets correclty and has MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.**

**7.0 pts**

**Average. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets and MISSING MOST of the content: highlighting the null/alternate hypothesis, value of test statistic, report p-value, conclusion and explanation.**

**5.0 pts**

**Needs Improvement. Student creates an original Hypothesis Test based on one of the data sets but there are multiple mistakes and/or conclusions are not valid.**

**0.0 pts**

**No Effort. The student did not propose/compute a new hypothesis test.**

10.0 pts

Total Points: 90.0